NOAA forecasts below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026 due to El Niño
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, predicting below-average activity with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. The forecast attributes the reduced activity to the anticipated emergence and persistence of El Niño conditions through the season. This marks the first below-average forecast since 2015, which also occurred during an El Niño year.
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Divergence score
This event sits in the top 93% of divergence this week. 2 outlets covered it, splitting into 2 framing camps across 1 bias group.
2 camps
1 bias group
The spectrum · how 2 outlets placed this story
LeftCenterRight
CNN
ABC News
Supportive of action
Neutral
Dismissive
Critical
Alarmist
International angle
The split, in one line
Both outlets report NOAA's core forecast identically. CNN emphasizes El Niño as the ultimate influencer and contrasts with 2025's Category 5 storms; ABC provides methodological clarity on what the forecast does and does not predict.
How each outlet covered it
Grouped by political lean
Thank El Niño for NOAA's latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season
cnn.com
CNN8h ago
Thank El Niño for NOAA's latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season
2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says
abcnews.go.com
ABC News47m ago
2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says
Cross-checked points from across the political spectrum
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